Quarterly reviews
April 2024
Surprise Surprise!
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has continued to use historical experience to forecast economic growth and manage inflation, relying on the same policies that were successful many years ago. Unfortunately, the Fed has been repeatedly surprised that its actions …
October 2023
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.“
–Vladimir Ilych Lenin
This quarter was one filled with dramatic and unprecedented historic events, a most unusual economic and geopolitical time in history, packed into a period of 90 days…
July 2023
“Change is the law of life.
And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.”
-John F. Kennedy
As we reflect on the first half of the year, we have been struck by the degree and rate of change that has impacted our world in such a brief period. After many years of low inflation and low interest rates driven by increased globalization and stable foreign policies, the past couple of years…
April 2023
“History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
-Mark Twain
The 2023 collapse of two US regional banks, albeit under different circumstances, certainly rhymes with the financial crisis of 2008. In its broadest scope, the behavior is similar; the banks in question took higher investment risk to achieve above average returns without proper risk measurements, thereby jeopardizing…
January 2023
“The oak fought the wind and was broken, the willow bent when it must and survived.” -Robert Jordan
The year 2022 will be remembered as an unusual period in investment history when both stock and bond indices declined in value. Typically, stocks and bonds perform inversely to each other. A confluence of events created a “perfect storm” that led to the negative performance returns across both asset classes.
October 2022
A Singular Focus: Inflation
The U.S. inflation rate remains stubbornly high. In August of 2022, the annual core inflation rate in the U.S., which excludes volatile food and fuel costs, accelerated to 6.3%, the highest rate since March. The Federal Reserve deems a 2% inflation rate as the optimum rate for a healthy economy…
June 2022
“You always reap what you sow; there is no shortcut.”
The S&P 500 achieved bear market status this quarter, declining more than 20% from its record high set in January. Several factors led to the deterioration of stock prices but the most significant reason for the decline was the higher rate of inflation. Supply chain disruption, the war in Ukraine, and the..
April 2022
Two Black Swans
We are humbled by the magnitude of change in the world. As if a war against a virus was not enough for the world to overcome, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine begins a new geopolitical threat of economic and military war. The images from Ukraine display horrific atrocities that seemed a remote probability in a developed, sovereign country. As investors, we are tasked with anticipating future outcomes…
January 2022
Unchartered Waters
For over a year and half, the pandemic has changed our lives. From the way we work to the way we interact with each other, COVID has altered many of our day-to-day behaviors. The pandemic also changed the tools that governments and central banks use to respond to an economic crisis. As a new variant emerges, investors are now pondering the past actions taken to carry the global economy through the pandemic…
October 2021
Rising Up
Despite the continued struggle to contain the Covid-19 virus, the U.S. economy has fared well relative to other countries coming out of the global pandemic. During 2020, U.S. GDP declined 3.4% less than any other G7 nation. Additionally, U.S. GDP growth for 2021 is expected to be 6%, which is higher than any other G7 nation except one…
July 2021
Living and Investing During Rapid Change
It is hard to believe how much has changed in only one year. The dream of revoultionary science methods creating new approaches to vaccinate against viruses, such as Covid-19, and the Federal Reserve’s “dream” of reaching their inflation taarget have both come true. Fortunately, these dreams have been accomplished on the heels of the first pandemic in one hundred years. The U.S. economy and the country have opened up out of the pandemic as a result of a multitude of factors…
April 2021
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”
– Charles Dickens
The themes of Dickens’s great novel A Tale of Two Cities, are contrast and resurrection: and so too as we reflect on the end of the first quarter of the year, we contrast the starkness of the pandemic to the tremendous future opportunity embedded in the U.S. economy. For everything we’ve been through, we are still rather fortunate. The United States by all accounts is in the final stages…
January 2021
Changing with the Distance
This year has been greatly affected by COVID-19 as consumers and business owners have adjusted their behaviors and made accomodations to their lives during the pandemic. To insulate the economy from the impact of the virus, central banks around the world…
October 2020
Hope Springs Eternal
The United States presidental election is foremost on the minds of investors. It is likely that the pace of legislative change will provide enough time for corporations and individuals to absorb the changes. Investors can take solace in the Constitution, which inherently provides checks and balances…
July 2020
Searching for Visibility
In the second quarter, we experienced one of the most dramatic stock market rebounds in history. Since falling to its low on March 23rd, the S&P 500 index subsequently rebounded over 30%. There were several factors which combined together provided the rationale for investor enthusiasm. The Federal Reserve’s actions of lowering interest rates…
April 2020
Investing During Turbulent Times
During the past 10 years, investors have placed a high priority in achieving above average performance on their investments. Performance, for most, was measured against the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The S&P 500 Index experienced a significant increase…
January 2020
Less Is More
The past 3 years have witnessed a resurgence in the US economy as well as a continued increase in the US Stock Market. The major theme of the advance has been fostered…
October 2019
Investment Management is an Art not a Science
The US economy continues to grow with indications that the growth will persist into 2020 and possibly beyond. The US economy has transitioned from one based on manufacturing to a service…
July 2019
KISS: Keep It Simple Stupid
US government economists along with economists in academia and banking are projecting a slowdown in the growth of the US economy. The Federal Reserve is also concerned that the growth in the US economy will slow in the months ahead. As a result…